TL;DR
Structured decision making ya maye gurbin yanke shawara na hankali da tsarin da ke da tabbas, wanda ke canza yanke shawara zuwa ga yanke shawara da ke da tabbas. Kaike burburya, kaike zaɓuɓɓuka, kaike kimanta badakalar da ka'idojin da ke da tabbas, kuma kaike tabbatar da me ya sa kaike yanke shawara. Sakamako: yanke shawara da ke da tabbas, akasin hankali, da kuma ikon koya daga sakamako — a maimakon kuma kaike sake yin yanke shawara.
Bayanin Komai
Structured decision making (SDM) shine tsarin hukuma don yin yanke shawara wanda ke da zurfi, tabbatarwa, da kimanta. Ba kamar yanke shawara na hankali ko muryar da ke da ƙarfi a cikin ɗaki, SDM ya bukatar masu yanke shawara su:
- Mai bayyana manufa — Me ya sa mu ke kokarin cimma?
- Haɓaka zaɓe — Muhimman zaɓe mun gani?
- Kayyade da ma'auni — Yadda zaɓe suke kwatankwacin a kan abin da yake da mahimmanci?
- Rubuta hujja — Me ya sa mu zaɓi zaɓi?
- Dubawa sakamako — Mun cimma abin da mun yi niyya?
Me Yasa Structured Decision Making Yana Da Mahimmanci
Yan rage Cognitive Bias
Ma'auni mai bayyana da hujja mai rubutu sun bayyana yanayin da aka fi sani da kuma rage anchoring, confirmation bias, da groupthink.
Yan ba da damar haɗin gwiwa
Idan hujja ta bayyana, ƙungiyoyi zasu iya yin gudunmawa mai ma'ana, kalubalanci yanayin da aka fi sani da kuma isa ga haɗin kai na gaskiya.
Yan haɓaka alhaki
Shawarwari mai rubutu suna haɓaka hanyoyin audit don bin doka, mulki, da koyo daga zaɓe na baya.
Yan inganta lokaci
Ta hanyar biyan sakamako da hujja, ƙungiyoyi suna gina hujja ta cikin gida da kuma inganta ingancin shawara a lokaci.
Ka'idojin Structured Decision Making
"Structured decision making" ba shine tsarin daya — shine iyali na tsare-tsare, wanda aka gina ta hanyar wadanda suka kirkiri yanke shawara. Mafi amfani:
PrOACT — Hammond, Keeney & Raiffa, Smart Choices, 1999
Problem · Objectives · Alternatives · Consequences · Tradeoffs — hanyar "rarraba da kuma ci gaba" wacce ke rarraba yanke shawara zuwa ga sassan biyar (da kuma yanke shawara marasa tabbas, haɗari, da yanke shawara da ke da alaƙa don yanke shawara da wahala). Shi ne yanke shawara na hukuma don mutanen da ke da hankali — Howard Raiffa ya ce shekaru da dama da suka gabata cewa yanke shawara mai kyau shine hanya da ake koya, ba ƙwarewa ba.
Value-Focused Thinking — Ralph Keeney, 1992
Keeney's ra'ayi mara tabbas: mutane da yawa suna yanke shawara backwards, suna fara daga zaɓuɓɓuka da ke gaban su. A maimakon haka, yanke shawara me kike son — sannan kike samu burburya da kuma kike samu zaɓuɓɓuka da kike son. Me kike son kafin zaɓuɓɓuka.
SDM a matsayin tsarin hukuma — Gregory, Failing et al., 2012
A cikin gudanar da muhalli da kuma kula da albarkatun kasa, "Structured Decision Making" shine tsarin hukuma don yanke shawara da yawa, da kuma yanke shawara da ke da wahala, da kuma yanke shawara da ke da alhakin — sake ginin madatsar ruwa, kare namun daji. US Fish & Wildlife Service da US Geological Survey suna gudanar da taro na tsarin hukuma na SDM kan matsalolin gudanarwa na gaske, tare da gudanarwa mai daɗi don koya daga sakamako da suka gabata.
Matrices na yanke shawara: Pugh, Kepner-Tregoe, AHP
Kayayyakin adadin na yanke shawara da yawa. Pugh matrix (Stuart Pugh) shine adadi na zaɓuɓɓuka da baseline da alamun +/−/S — da Pugh ya ce shine "controlled convergence," bayyana hybrids da gaps, ba shine zabi na nasara. Kepner-Tregoe (an tsara daga binciken RAND na 1950s na yadda manyan masu gudanarwa za suka yanke shawara) ya raba hard MUSTs daga weighted WANTs. AHP (Thomas Saaty) ya samo adadi daga kwatankwacin juna a kan 1–9 scale, tare da tabbatarwa na daidaito.
Tsarin Structured Decision Making
Gindin Shawara
Bayyana a bayyana abin da ya kamata a yanke shawara, waɗanda ke da sha'awar shawara, da kuma abin da ke iyakance.
Gano Manufofin
Muhimman sakamako me take ku ke kokarin cimma? Mene ne nasara take nuna?
Haɓaka Zaɓe
Tattara dukkan zaɓe mai amfani. Ba lallai ba ku yi nazari har yanzu — mai da hankali kan faɗi.
Tattara Shawarwari
Tattara bayanai mai alaƙa, ra'ayoyin masana, da na baya don kowane zaɓi.
Kimanta Madafun iko
Amfani da pro/con nazari, weighted scoring, ko argument mapping don kwatankwacin zaɓe.
Yi & Rubuta
Zaɓi zaɓi mafi kyau da rubuta hujja — wane hujjojin suka ɗauki shawara.
Dubawa & Koyo
Biya sakamako a lokaci. Shin yanayin ku sun yi nasara? Me kuke yi wa banza?
Yadda Argumentree Ke Taimaka Structured Decision Making
Tsare-tsaren duka suna da bukatar daya: ka bayyana yanke shawara da tabbas da ka riƙe rikodi. Shi ne kuma abin da Argumentree ke yi, wanda aka gina a kan argument mapping:
Ma'auni mai bayyana & zaɓe
Zaɓe da hujjojin da ke nan don kowane ɗaya suna cikin shiri mai tsari na pro/con — PrOACT da shawara-matrix disciple, wanda aka bayyana ga dukkan ƙungiya.
Kimanta madafun iko mai nauyi
Multi-dimensional rating suna tattara zuwa cikin itacen zuwa net-support scores, haka zaɓe zaɓe suna kimanta madafun iko maimakon amsa.
Rubuta hujja
Hanyar audit trail suna rufe wane hujjojin suka ɗauki shawara — hujja ta cikin gida SDM ta gina don kirkira.
Madafun iko mai tsari
Tsarin hujja da kimanta hujjojin a kan daraja suna rage anchoring, confirmation bias, da groupthink.
Structured decision making shine tsarin da ke da amfani a cikin yanke shawara, yanke shawara na ƙungiya, da yanke shawara na hankali; duba kuma tsare-tsaren yanke shawara.
Tambayoyi Da Ake Yawan Yi
Me ya sa shawara mai tsari?
Shawara mai tsari shi ne hanyar tsari don yin zaɓe wanda ke raba shawarwari mai girma zuwa sassan bayyana: gano manufofin, haɓaka zaɓe, kimanta madafun iko, da rubuta hujja. Ba kamar shawara mai ɗabi'a, yana kirkira hanyar bayyana, maida-gaskiya wanda ke inganta ingancin shawara da alhaki.
Yadda shawara mai tsari ke da bambanci da shawara na yau da kullun?
Shawara na yau da kullun yawanci suna dogara ne da hankali, yanayi, ko muryar da ke da ƙarfi a cikin ɗaki. Shawara mai tsari ya buƙaci bayyana ma'auni, kimanta pro da cons, da rubuta me ya sa zaɓi zaɓi an yi. Wannan ya haɓaka alhaki, ya ba da damar koyo daga shawarwari na baya, kuma ya rage madafun iko.
Muhimman matakai a shawara mai tsari
Matakai muhimman sune: 1) Bayyana shawara da manufofin a bayyana, 2) Gano dukkan zaɓe mai amfani, 3) Tattara bayanai mai alaƙa da shawarwari, 4) Kimanta zaɓe da ma'auni amfani da pro/con nazari, 5) Yi shawara da rubuta hujja, 6) Dubawa sakamako don inganta shawarwari na gaba.
Waɗanda ke amfani da shawara mai tsari?
Ƙungiyoyi waɗanda ke buƙatar shawarwari mai tsari, inganci, da kuma rubutu: hukumar mulki, hukumar kula da doka, ƙungiyoyin gudanarwa, sashen shari'a, kwamitin kiwon lafiya, da kuma kowane ƙungiya inda shawarwari ke da mahimmanci da buƙatar rubutu.
Kayayyakin waɗanda ke goyan bayan shawara mai tsari?
Kayayyaki sun haɗa daga pro/con jerin zuwa cibiyoyin da suka samu irin su Argumentree wanda ke bayar da hujja mapping, weighted scoring, haɗin gwiwa nazari, da rubuta shawara. Mafi kyawun kayayyaki suna bayyana hanyar shawara da kuma rubuta hujja don neman sakamako na gaba.
Yadda shawara mai tsari ke inganta ingancin shawara?
Ta hanyar bayyana hujja, shawara mai tsari yana rage madafun iko kamar anchoring da confirmation bias, yana kafa duk ra'ayoyi, yana kirkira hujja ta cikin gida na shawarwari na baya, kuma yana ba da damar ƙungiyoyi su koyo daga sakamako ta hanyar kwatankwacin sakamako da rubuta hujja.
Manazarta & Karatu Mai Tsawo
Hammond, J. S., Keeney, R. L., & Raiffa, H. (1999). Yanke Yanke: Jagora Mai Amfani don Yanke Yanke. Harvard Business School Press.
Kungiyar PrOACT, wacce masana ilimi suka rubuta waɗanda suka kafa tattalin arzi.
Keeney, R. L. (1992). Neman Ma'ana: Hanya zuwa Yanke Yanke Mai Kyau. Harvard University Press.
Kafa abin da kike son shi kafin ka zaya jerin zaɓe - ƙima kafin zaɓe.
View source →Gregory, R., Failing, L., Harstone, M., Long, G., McDaniels, T., & Ohlson, D. (2012). Yanke Yanke Mai Tsari: Jagora Mai Amfani don Zaɓe Zaɓe na Gudanar da Muhalli. Wiley-Blackwell.
SDM a matsayin darasi na hukuma don zaɓe zaɓe na jama'a da ƙima.
View source →Saaty, T. L. (1980). Aikin Hierarchy na Analytic. McGraw-Hill.
Hayan abubuwan da aka fi so daga kwatankwacin juna-juna tare da aikin inganci (AHP).
Kepner, C. H., & Tregoe, B. B. (1965). Manajan Mai Hikima. McGraw-Hill.
Kewayawa 'yan takaitaccen MUST daga WANTs da aka kaɗa, wanda aka tsara daga binciken shekarun 1950 na yadda manajojin ke yanke shawara.
Pugh, S. (1991). Tsarin Tsarin Dijital: Hanyoyin Haɗin gwiwa don Injiniyan Kayayyakin Nasara. Addison-Wesley.
Matrix na Pugh da haɗin gwiwa.
Kuna Iri don Kawo Ci Gaba da Yanke Shawara?
Argumentree ya bayar da kayan aikin don structured decision making: argument mapping, weighted scoring, collaborative deliberation, da kuma tabbatar da yanke shawara.