Jeff Bezos High-Quality Decisions: Abin da Ya Koya daga Warren Buffett
A watan Satumba 2018 a Economic Club of Washington, Jeff Bezos ya bayyana falsafar sa na yanke shawara: "A matsayin babban jami'i, kana biya domin ka yi yanke shawara kaɗan na girma. Idan na yi yanke shawara uku masu kyau a rana, haka lalace. Warren Buffett ya ce shi yana da kyau idan ya yi yanke shawara uku masu kyau a shekara." Bezos yana kare ingancin yanke shawara ta hanyar ayyuka da aka tsara: yanke shawara "high-IQ meetings" don 10am, ƙi yanke shawara maji bayan 5pm, ƙara 8 hours of sleep, da amfani da Amazon's 6-pager memo system don tilastawa hujja mai tsari. Game da yanke shawara na ciki, Bezos ya ce: "Duk yanke shawara na mafi kyau sun kasance na zuciya, hankali, ciki—not analysis." Amma cikinsa an horar da shi ta hanyar rubutu: kowace yanke shawara mafi girma ta Amazon an rubuta tare da hujjata, wanda ke haifar da hujja ta asali wacce ke ci gaba da hankali. Muhalli: shirye-shirye → yanke shawara na ciki → rubutu → shirye-shirye na gaba. Bezos ya aiwatar da falsafar Warren Buffett ta hanyar tsarin Amazon—the 6-pager, silent karatu, Type 1/Type 2 yanke shawara framework, disagree and commit. Ka'idojin: ƙarancin yanke shawara, inganci mafi girma, hujja mai rubutu.
A 2018, Jeff Bezos ya bayyana falsafar sa na yanke shawara: "Kana biya domin ka yi yanke shawara kaɗan na girma." Shi yana maida hankali ga yanke shawara "3 decisions a year" na Warren Buffett. Amma Bezos ya ƙara abin muhimmai: tsari don ɗauka me yanke shawara aka yi—don haka rubutu ya zama shirye-shirye na gaba.
- 3 decisions a day — kare aikin tunani don abin da ya fi mahimmanci
- 10am high-IQ meetings — shirye-shirye yanke shawara lokacin da kake da mafi girman aiki
- Ciki + Rubutu — hankali yana aiki saboda an horar da shi da aka rubuta
- The flywheel — rubutu → shirye-shirye → hankali mai amana → rubutu
Jeff Bezos a Economic Club of Washington, Satumba 2018
Tambayoyi da suka Canja Yadda Shugabannin Kamfanoni Ke Yi
Satumba 13, 2018. The Washington Hilton. Jeff Bezos—wanda a lokacin shi ne mafi girman mutum a duniya—ya zauna tare da David Rubenstein domin tambayoyi na minti 70 a Economic Club of Washington.
Lokacin da aka tambaye shi game da yanke shawara, Bezos ya bayar da amsa wanda zai zama daya daga cikin mafi shahara na shawara na shugabannin kamfanoni na shekara:
"A matsayin babban jami'i, me kake yi wa gaskiya? Kake biya domin ka yi yanke shawara kaɗan na girma."
"Aikinka ba shi ne ka yi yanke shawara dubu-dubu kowace rana."
"Idan na yi, kamar, uku yanke shawara masu kyau a rana, haka lalace. Kuma ina so su kasance masu inganci da zan iya yi."
Sannan aka zo da nuni wanda ya haɗa al'ada ta Amazon da asalin falsafarta:
"Warren Buffett ya ce shi yana da kyau idan ya yi uku yanke shawara masu kyau a shekara. Don haka, ina da imani cikakke."
Uku yanke shawara a rana ga shugaban kamfani wanda ke gudanar da kamfani mai daraja trillion 2. Uku yanke shawara a shekara ga mai saka jari wanda ke gudanar da daraja billion 900. Suka yi kama da juna, ka'idojin: inganci fiye da adadi.
Ka'idojin 10am
Bezos bai yi kasa yanke shawara kaɗan ba. Shi yana kawo hankali ga lokacin da yake yi.
"Ina yi wa high-IQ meetings kafin almuerza. Kamar, abin da zai kasance da wahala, wanda zai kasance 10am meeting."
"Kuma bayan 5pm, ina ce, 'Ban taba tunanin haka a yau. Ka zo mu yi shi a 10am gobe.'"
Haka bai kasance kamar laziness ba. Shi ne karewa. Bezos yana sanin cewa yanke shawara da aka yi a 6pm, lokacin da kake da gaji da kake so ka je gida, ba lallai ba zai yi sauri—saboda za ka yi shakka a gobe kuma za ka iya yi shi komai.
Ginin Yawancin Rana na Bezos
The Sleep Non-Negotiable
Bezos yana karewa da mafarkin sa—da kuma ya ce shi ne hanyar kare ingancin yanke shawara:
"Ina samun sa'a 8 na mafakar. Ina ƙara yawa."
"Don haka, in ce ina mafaka sa'a 4 a rana. Yanzu ina sa'a 33% mafi yawa don yanke shawara. Don haka, ina son in yi yanke shawara 100, yanzu zan iya yi 133 yanke shawara. Shin haka ya sa za mu ce lalace idan ingancin waɗannan yanke shawara zai kasance ƙasa saboda kake da gaji ko kake da bakin ciki?"
Lissafin yana da cutarwa ga al'ada ta hustle: 33% mafi yawan yanke shawara ba lallai bai sa lalace ba idan suka kasance mafi ƙarancin yanke shawara. A matakin Bezos, yanke shawara ɗaya mara kyau zai iya kashe biliyons.
Farashin da aka Fara na "Sa'a Mai Yawa"
Bezos ya ce: mun yi bikin shugabannin kamfanoni wadanda ke aiki na sa'a 18, amma ba mu taba lissafin ko yanke shawara suka yi sun kasance masu kyau ba. A matakin shugaban kamfani, yanke shawara ɗaya mara kyau da aka yi a daure zai iya kashe daraja na yanke shawara 100 da aka yi lokacin da kake da gaji.
The "Gut Decision" Paradox
Nan ga Bezos ya ce abin da ya sa mu zamo masu shakka:
"Duk yanke shawara na mafi kyau a kasuwanci da rayuwa sun kasance na zuciya, hankali, ciki... ba analysis."
Ta za mu ce—shugaban kamfani na kamfani mafi data-driven a duniya ya ce yanke shawarar sa mafi kyau ba ta data-driven?
Nan ga abin da mutane ke makanta: Bezos bai ce "ba analysis." Shi yana ce analysis shi ne abin da ake bukata. Bayan an yi analysis, kira ta ƙarshe—for yanke shawara mafi muhimmanci—ta fito daga hankali mai horarwa.
Kuma hankali ba shi ne sihiri ba. Shi ne horarwa ta hanyar:
Takardar Documentation
Kowace babbar shawarar Amazon an rubuta a cikin memo mai shafuka 6. Ba kawai abin da aka yanke shawara—amma ME ya sa haka. Masu neman zaɓe, hujjojin da aka yi, ra'ayoyin da aka kawo.
Gano Pattern
Lokacin da kuka yi bitar hundreds of memos na shawara—nasarorin da kasa—kwakwalwa ta gina makaranta. "Gut feeling" shine pattern matching daidai da makarantar.
Gaskiya Insight
Shawarar Bezos's gut ba untrained instincts. Suna amsa na wani system da ya rubuta hujjoji, ya kiyaye kiyasin cikin gida, kuma ya horar da hankali ta hanyar structured reflection. "Gut" nasa ya karanta 6-pagers na shekaru 20.
The Shawara Flywheel
Bezos (kamar Buffett) bai yi shawara a matsayin abubuwa masu zaman kansu. Suna cikin loop:
The Bezos-Buffett Shawara Loop
The loop ya kare: Rubutu ya zama shiri. Shirin ya horar da hankali. Hankali ya yanke shawara. Shawara ya rubuta.
Haka ne Buffett ya sake karanta wasiƙun sahihi. Haka ne Amazon ya adanawa kowace 6-pager. Rubutu ba shi bureaucracy—shi ne yadda kike horar da hankali na cikin gida.
Nau'in 1 vs Nau'in 2: The Speed Framework
Bezos bai amince da iri ɗaya na shawara zuwa kowace shawara. Ya bambanta tsakanin biyu:
Type 1: One-Way Doors
Shawarar da ba a iya juyawa. Stakes girma. Murguna ya juyawa.
- • Mukamai, mabadiliko makubwa, maajiri muhimu
- • Inastahili uchambuzi wa kina na hati
- • Inafaa kuwekeza kwenye kurasa 6
Type 2: Two-Way Doors
Shawarar da ake iya juyawa. Stakes ƙasa. Sauƙi ya juyawa.
- • Muhimman yanke shawara na yau da kullun
- • Yanke shawara tare da ~70% na bayanai da ake so
- • "Karatattu da aminci" idan aka bukata
"Most shawara ya kamata a yanke da kusan 70% na bayanai da kake so. Idan kuna jira 90%, a yawancin lokuta, kuna daɗe."
The failure mode Bezos ya yi waɗanda: shawarar Type 2 kamar Type 1. Lokacin da ƙungiyoyi ke amince da heavy process zuwa kowace shawara, suna daɗe ba tare da zama mafi kyau.
Disagree and Commit
Me ya faru lokacin da ƙungiya ba ta iya kai ga amincewa? Bezos's amsa: disagree and commit.
"Ina disagree and commit all the time. Mun yi amincewa da wata Amazon Studios original. Na gaya wa ƙungiyar ra'ayina: debatable in ya zama interesting enough, complicated to produce, the business terms aren't that good, and mun da manyan damarai."
"Sun da ra'ayi da gaske da suke so ci gaba. Na rubuta suna da 'I disagree and commit and ina so ya zama mafi watched abin da mun taɓa yi.'"
Muhimmin abu shi ne cewa rashin amincewa ya rubuta. Hujjojin duka biyu an adanawa. Idan shawara ta tabbatu a kasa, akwai rikodi don karanta. Idan ta tabbatu a girma, akwai rikodi na abin da rashin amincewa ya kamata da me ya sa ba ta yi nasara.
Me ya sa Haka ya Kamata
"Disagree and commit" ba shi ne ba da rashin amincewa. Shi ne kiyaye rashin amincewa da kiyaye sauri. Rashin amincewa ya rubuta. Hujjoji an adanawa. Ƙungiya ta ci gaba. Da lokacin da aka yi wa shawara, duka bayanai na nan.
Daga Buffett zuwa Bezos zuwa Ƙungiyarka
Warren Buffett ya gina $900 billion yana yanke shawara 3 a shekara, an rubuta a cikin wasiƙun masu hannun jari. Jeff Bezos ya gina kamfani mai daraja $2 trillion yana yanke shawara 3 a rana, an rubuta a cikin 6-pagers.
Sakalar ya bambanta. Ka'idojin ya kamata:
Kare shawararka masu daraja
Kada ku raba iko a tsakanin manyan shawara.
Shirya shawara don lokacin da ake da sauri
Shawarar da ake yanke a lokacin da ba a da sauri—ba su sauri—sun kasance mafi muni.
Rubuta hujjoji, ba kawai shawara
Rubutu na yau ya zama shiri na gaba.
Amince da horar da hankali—but horar da shi
Shawarar gut suna aiki lokacin da gut ya ci abinci structured shiri.
Buffett ya horar da hankalinsa yana karanta shafuka 500 a rana. Bezos ya gina system—6-pagers, silent karatu, disagree and commit—da ya horar da hankali na cikin gida a girma.
Tambayar da ke nan ta ga ƙungiyar ku: Menene tsarin da kuna da shi don ɗaukar hujja, kiyaye memba na asali, kuma canja shawarwarin yau zuwa shirye-shiryen nan gaba?
Ci gaba da Karatun
- Falsafar Shawarwari ta Warren Buffett: The 20-Slot Punch Card That Built $900 Billion →Horo da zurfi zuwa falsafar da Bezos yake nadi: the 20-slot punch card, Ted Williams, "lethargy bordering on sloth"
- Sa'a $100 Million na Shawarwari na Elon Musk: The Lex Fridman Clip Every CEO Should See →Musk ya yiwa darajar shawarwari ta sa'a
Muhimman Tambayoyi da Aka Yi
Me ya ce Jeff Bezos game da shawarwari na daraja?
A cikin wata tare da Economic Club of Washington a shekara ta 2018, Bezos ya ce: 'A matsayin babban jami'i, me kake samu albashi yi? Kake samu albashi yi shawarwari kaɗan na daraja. Aikinka ba shi ne yi shawarwari dubu dubu a kowace rana. Idan na yi shawarwari uku na daraja a kowace rana, haka lalace. Kuma zai kamata su kasance na daraja kamar yadda na iya yi.' Sannan ya nadi Warren Buffett: 'Warren Buffett ya ce shi yana da daraja idan ya yi shawarwari uku na daraja a kowace shekara.'
Me yasa Jeff Bezos ya shirya shawarwari muhimmi a 10am?
Bezos ya ce: 'Ina yi taro na daraja kafin almuerza. Kamar, komai zai zama da wahala, zai kasance taro na 10.00.' Ya yi shiru da shawarwari muhimmi bayan 5pm, ina ce: 'Bayan 5pm, bana iya tunani game da haka a yau. Ka duba nan take a 10am.' Ya yi shawarwari na daraja fiye da adadin shawarwari, yana gane cewa shawarwari da aka yi da rashin kwanciyar hali ko gaggawa za a sake duba su kuma.
Me yake nufin Bezos da 'shawarwari na ciki'?
Bezos ya ce: 'Duk shawarwarin da na yi na daraja a kasuwanci da rayuwa sun kasance na zuciya, hankali, ciki... ba tare da bincike.' Amma haka bai nufi ya guji bincike ba. Ya nufi cewa, ga shawarwarin da ya fi muhimmanci, bayan an gama bincike, ya ƙare da zuciya. Zuciyarsa ta horo ta hanyar shekaru da yawa na karatu, tsarin rubutun 6-pager na Amazon, da bita na tsari na shawarwari. Shawarwari na ciki ba tare da shirye-shirye ba sun kasance kaman shawarwari; shawarwari na ciki tare da shirye-shirye sun kasance gano na tsari.
Yadda Bezos yake tunani game da barcin dare da shawarwari?
Bezos ya yi shawarwari na sa'a takwas na barcin dare saboda yana kare darajar shawarwari. Ya ce: 'Idan kuna rage barcin dare, kuna iya samu sa'a biyu na aiki, amma aikin na iya zama kama ba shi da amana kamar yadda kake yi shawarwari na daraja ƙasa.' Ya ƙi al'adar aikin da ke da barcin dare ƙasa, ina ce: 'Idan darajar shawarwarin zai kasance ƙasa saboda kuna da rashin kwanciyar hali ko kuna gaggawa, haka bai kamata ba.'
Me yake nufin Bezos da '70% bayanai' don shawarwari?
Bezos ya ce shawarwarin da ya fi muhimmanci ya kamata a yi da kusan 70% na bayanai da kake so. In ka yi jarrabawar 90% na tabbatarwa, zai kamata ka yi saurin sauri. Ya bambanta tsakanin Shawarwari na 1 (ba za a iya komawa ba 'one-way doors' da suke bukatar bincike na zurfi) da Shawarwari na 2 (za a iya komawa 'two-way doors' da za a yi saurin sauri). Shawarwarin da ya fi muhimmanci sun kasance na 2, amma ƙungiyoyi suna yi su kamar na 1, suna saurin sauri.
Me yake nufin 'disagree and commit' a Amazon?
Disagree and commit shi ne ka'idojin Bezos don gujewa shawarwari na rashin kwanciyar hali: bayan an yi shawarwari, dukan mutane suna amincewa da shi, har ma da wadanda suka ce ba su amince ba. Bezos ya ce ya yi amfani da shi: 'Ina disagree and commit akai-akai.' Muhimmin abu shi ne rashin amincewa ya rubuta—haka za a iya koya daga shi idan shawarwarin ya zama ba shi da amana. Ba shi ne ya guji rashin amincewa ba; shi ne ya saurin sauri tare da riƙe rubutun.
Yadda Bezos ya yi amfani da falsafar Buffett a Amazon?
Bezos ya nadi falsafar Buffett 'three good decisions a year' a matsayin tasiri. Ya yi amfani da shi a Amazon ta hanyar: (1) Tsarin rubutun 6-pager—wanda ya sa shawarwari na tsari kafin taro; (2) Karatu na shiru a taron—wanda ya sa dukan mutane suka shiga cikin hujja; (3) Tsarin shawarwari na 1/2—wanda ya sa ya san shawarwarin da ya bukatar bincike na zurfi; (4) Disagree and commit—wanda ya riƙe rashin amincewa tare da saurin sauri. Tsarin Amazon ya ɗauki hujja, ba kawai kammala.
Argumentree Team
Executive Leadership
The Argumentree team is pioneering structured decision intelligence for enterprises worldwide. Our mission is to transform how organizations make, document, and learn from decisions.
Yadda Argumentree Ya Taimaka Muku Kai Shawarwari
Bezos ya gina 6-pager. Buffett ya rubuta wasiƙun masu hannun jari. Duk hanyoyin suna da burin daya: ɗaukar hujja, ba kawai kammala. Argumentree ya ba ƙungiyar ku da nassi iri ɗaya—automatically.
Sai Kawo Shawarwari Duka.
Bezos ya yi shawarwari uku na daraja a kowace rana. Ƙungiyar ku ma zai iya haka—with structured reasoning that compounds over time. Documentation becomes shirye-shirye. Shirye-shirye ya sa shawarwari mai amana.
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