Steelmanning: Hanyar da manyan masu tattaunawa, lauyoyi a kotun koli, da Warren Buffett ke amfani da ita

TL;DR

A cikin Mayu 2013, Warren Buffett ya gayyaci wani mai sayar da gajeren hula wanda ke yin fare a kan Berkshire Hathaway a kan dandalin taron shekara-shekara na kansa—don ya gabatar da hujja mafi karfi a kan sa. Wannan shine steelmanning: gina mafi kyawun sigar hujjar adawa kafin ka shiga cikin ta. Wannan yana da nufin akasin strawmanning, kuma shine mafi ƙarancin amfani da tsarin yanke shawara a cikin kasuwanci.

Steelman da strawman — shiga cikin mafi karfi sigar hujjar abokan hamayya, ba mafi rauni ba
Ka'idojin Rapoport — tsarin matakai 4 na gargajiya, ta hanyar mai falsafa Daniel Dennett
Gaskiyar shaida — tsarin adawa ya fi yarda kan ingancin yanke shawara (Jaridar Kungiyar Gudanarwa, 1986)
Hanyar juyawa — yin aikin kare shaidan yana juyawa; karfafa kawai yana aiki idan kokarin yana da gaskiya

Bear a Taron Buffett na Kansa

A watan Mayu na shekarar 2013, Warren Buffett ya yi wani abu da kusan babu wani shugaba da ya taɓa yi. Ya gayyaci Doug Kass—mai sayar da hannun jari da ke da jari a kan Berkshire Hathaway—zuwa kan dandalin taron shekara-shekara na Berkshire, a gaban dubban masu hannun jari, don ya gabatar da hujja mai ƙarfi a kan kamfanin. An ce Buffett ya ƙarfafa shi da ya kawo tambayoyi masu wahala kuma, a cikin dariya, ya ga ko zai iya rage farashin hannun jari.

Buffett ba ya yi wannan don nishadi. Ya yi shi ne saboda hujja da aka taɓa gwadawa kawai da ƙananan adawa ba ta ba da tabbaci kan ƙarfin ta ba. Gayyatar mai sukar ka mafi ƙwarewa don ya yi mummunan aiki shine mafi tsarkakakken nau'in wani fanni da ke da suna:

Steelmanning. Kuma kafin ka sanya shi a ƙarƙashin kalmomin tattaunawa: ka yi tunani game da babban shawarwarin da ƙungiyarka ta amince da shi a ƙarshe. Wa ya samu aikin ƙin amincewa da shi? Idan amsar ita ce "babu wanda, amma mun tattauna damuwa," wannan rubutun yana magana ne akan gibin da ke tsakanin waɗannan abubuwa biyu.

Abin da Steelmanning ke nufi ainihi

Steelmanning shine ilimin gina mafi karfi da zai yiwu na hujjar adawa kafin a shiga tattaunawa da ita. Ba shine sigar da abokin hamayya ya bayyana ba. Mafi kyawun sigar—wacce za su bayyana idan suna da karin lokaci don tunani, ingantaccen shaida, da babu matsin lamba na magana. Sigar da, idan gaskiya ce, za ta yi nasara kan matsayinka.

Tushen falsafa shine ka'idar jinƙai: fassara hujjojin da suka sabawa juna a cikin mafi kyawun yanayinsu, mafi ruwan hoda. Yi tunanin cewa mutum na biyu yana da kyawawan dalilai don matsayinsa. Yi mu'amala da abin da suke nufi maimakon ainihin abin da suka faɗa. Nemo shaidar da zasu iya ambata amma basu yi ba.

Matsalar Tunani

Steelmanning yana da wahala a hankali saboda yana jin kamar an yi asara. Lokacin da ka bayyana mafi karfin sigar hujja a kan matsayinka, kana haifar da irin wannan rashin jin dadi kamar ainihin rashin nasara. Manyan shugabannin da suka gina sana'a akan kasancewa daidai suna samun wannan musamman wahala. Aikin yana bukatar ka karɓi ra'ayi mai sabani: samun mafi karfin hujja a kan matsayinka da tsira daga gare ta yana ƙarfafa matsayinka, ba ya raunana shi.

Ka'idojin Canonical: Dokokin Rapoport

Steelmanning yana da tsarin rubutu na doka. Filozof Daniel Dennett, a cikin Intuition Pumps da Sauran Kayan Aiki don Tunani (2013), ya tsara dokoki hudu don sukar matsayin abokin hamayya, wanda ya ba wa mai nazarin wasan Anatol Rapoport.

Sake bayyana matsayinsu—fiye da yadda suka yi.

Ya kamata ka yi kokarin bayyana matsayin wanda kake nufi da kyau, a fili, da adalci har wanda kake nufi ya ce, 'Na gode, ina fatan na yi tunanin bayyana hakan a wannan hanya.'

Lissafa maki na yarjejeniya

Ya kamata ka lissafa duk wasu maki na yarjejeniya (musamman idan ba su shafi al'amura na gama gari ko fadi ba).

Fada abin da ka koya

Ya kamata ka ambaci duk abin da ka koya daga burinka.

Sai a nan, a mayar da martani

Sa'an nan ne kawai za a ba ka izinin faɗin ko kalma ɗaya ta ƙin amincewa ko suka.

Lura da abin da dokokin ke yi: suna sanya musanta zama wata dama da ka samu ta hanyar nuna fahimta. Dokar farko ita ce steelman kanta—idan abokin hamayyar ka ba zai amince da sake bayyana shari'arsu ba, ba ka fahimce ta ba tukuna, kuma kowace hari da ka kaddamar tana nufin wani abu da ka gina da kanka.

Cututtukan Strawman

A cikin Fabrairu 2013, Yahoo ta dakatar da aikin nesa ga ma'aikatanta. Takardar sanarwar—wacce shugaban HR Jackie Reses ta aiko kuma nan take aka saki—ta yi ikirarin cewa "sauri da inganci yawanci ana sadaukar da su lokacin da muke aiki daga gida" kuma ta nuna muhimmancin tattaunawa a cikin dakin taro da gidan cin abinci. Tattaunawar jama'a da ta biyo baya ta kasance wani babban darasi na yin amfani da hujjojin karya daga bangarorin biyu.

Harin da aka kai kan Shugaba Marissa Mayer ya kasance a kan ra'ayin "ta na tunanin cewa mutanen da ke aiki daga gida suna da kasala." Harin da aka kai kan masu sukar ya kasance a kan ra'ayin "suna son guje wa alhakin." Babu daga cikin su ne abin da kowanne bangare ya yi ikirari ainihi.

Matsayin mai kare ra'ayi na Yahoo: aikin nesa yana katse hanyoyin sadarwa na ba na hukuma da ke ba da damar saurin juyawa, kuma Yahoo kamfani ne a cikin rikici wanda ya yi imani cewa yana bukatar haduwa ta bazata fiye da jin dadin ma'aikata. Matsayin mai kare ra'ayi na masu sukar: idan dabarun dawo da kamfanin yana bukatar kirkire-kirkire, kawar da sassauci zai fitar da wadanda suka fi kwarewa tare da zaɓin kasuwa waɗanda suka zaɓi Yahoo a wani ɓangare saboda hakan.

Dukkanin shari'o'in steelman suna da ma'ana kuma suna haskaka juna. Babu wanda ya mamaye muhawara. Wannan shine annobar strawman: a cikin kasuwanci kamar yadda yake a cikin siyasa, muna kai farmaki ga ra'ayoyi masu rauni na matsayin abokan hamayya saboda yana da sauƙi kuma yana jin kamar mun yi nasara.

Yadda Masana Ke Amfani Da Shi

Kotun Koli Masu Kare Hakkoki: Kotunan Tattaunawa

Tattaunawa ta baki a gaban Kotun Koli ita ce mafi girman tasiri a fannin shari'a a Amurka, kuma masu kare hujja suna shiryawa don wannan tare da kotunan jarrabawa—zaman atisaye inda abokan aiki, malamai na shari'a, da tsofaffin masu kula ke taka rawa a matsayin alkalai masu adawa da kuma gina hujjoji masu muni da za su iya zama a kan matsayin mai kare hujja. Shawarar da aka saba bayarwa a cikin horon kare hujja, ciki har da littafin David C. Frederick na "Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy," ita ce a nemo raunin a cikin sharin ku kafin alkalai su gano su—domin za su gano.

McKinsey: Kungiyoyin Ja da Kungiyoyin Blue

Jagoran warware matsaloli da McKinsey ta wallafa yana bayyana ayyukan ƙungiyoyin ja da ƙungiyoyin shuɗi: taron wata ƙungiya da ke da sha'awar shawarwarin da wata ƙungiya ta abokan aiki masu adalci waɗanda aikin su shine gwada shi kafin ya kai ga abokin ciniki. Manufar ba ta kasance duba ladabi ba—amma tana ba da damar hujjojin da suka fi ƙarfi su sami wurin zama a teburin yayin da har yanzu akwai lokaci don aiwatar da su.

Amazon: Sassan Hadari da "Karya da Kula"

Tsarin takardar shawarwarin shahararren 6-pager na Amazon yana haɗa hujjojin da suka saba cikin shawarwarin kansa: labarin yana ƙunshe da abin da zai iya faruwa ba daidai ba, wane tunani ne ke da nauyi, da kuma abin da martanin gasa zai iya zama—saboda haka hujjojin suna kan tebur a rubuce kafin tattaunawa ta fara. Al'adar da ke kewaye tana bayar da rabin: dole ne a bayyana dukkan ƙorafe-ƙorafen kafin yanke shawara, sannan kowa yana aiwatarwa. Muna rufe dukkan tsarin a yadda McKinsey, Bridgewater, da Amazon ke juya rashin jituwa zuwa yanke shawara.

Bridgewater: Neman Mafi Karfi Masu Suhuni

Babban shawarwarin Ray Dalio a cikin Ka'idoji shine nemo mutanen da suka fi yuwuwa wadanda ba su yarda da kai ba kuma ka yi kokarin fahimtar dalilansu—wanda aka kafa a Bridgewater ta hanyar tarurrukan da aka rubuta da muhawara mai nauyi bisa inganci. Al'adar gwajin damuwa na kamfanin ta yi fice a wani shahararren lokaci: a shekarar 2008, yayin da S&P 500 ya fadi kusan kashi 37%, asusun Pure Alpha na Bridgewater ya dawo da kusan +9%.

Abin da Binciken Ya Nuna Gaskiya

Hujjar kasuwancin Steelmanning ba ta dogara kan labarai ba. Abubuwa uku ne masu mahimmanci:

Tsarin rashin jituwa ya fi ra'ayi daya.

Schweiger, Sandberg da Ragan sun kwatanta kare ra'ayi, binciken dialectical, da kuma jituwa a cikin yanke shawara na dabaru. Dukkan hanyoyin rashin jituwa da aka tsara sun samar da shawarwari da tunani masu inganci fiye da jituwa—duk da cewa kungiyoyin jituwa sun bayar da rahoton gamsuwa mafi girma. Shawarwari mafi kyau, ƙarancin jin daɗi.

Academy of Management Journal, 1986

Duba gaba: ~30%

Tunanin cewa an riga an kasa yanke shawara—sannan bayyana dalilin—ya inganta ikon mutane na tantance dalilan sakamakon da kusan kashi 30% fiye da nazarin gaba na al'ada. Wannan binciken shine tushen kimiyya na fasahar pre-mortem da Gary Klein ya shahara da ita daga baya.

Mitchell, Russo & Pennington, 1989; Klein, HBR 2007

Ra'ayin rashin jituwa na ƙananan rukuni yana faɗaɗa tunani

Shirin binciken Charlan Nemeth ya gano cewa fuskantar ra'ayoyin ƙananan ƙabilu na gaske yana sa ƙungiyoyi su nemi ƙarin bayani, su yi amfani da ƙarin dabaru, kuma su sami ƙarin ingantattun hanyoyin magance matsaloli fiye da fuskantar ra'ayoyin kawai na mafi yawa.

Nemeth, UC Berkeley

Amma shin binciken ba ya ce aikin kare shaidan yana gaza ba?

Idan ka karanta littafin ilimin rukuni, kana da hujja mai inganci a shirye: gwaje-gwajen Charlan Nemeth sun gano cewa wanda aka nada a matsayin mai kare ra'ayi—wani mutum da ke yin sabani a matsayin aiki—yawanci ba ya inganta tunani ko kadan. Mafi muni, yana iya haifar da karfafa tunani: rukuni, bayan ya tsira daga hujjar, yana samun karin kwarin gwiwa a ra'ayinsa na asali, ba raguwa ba.

Wannan binciken gaskiya ne, kuma yana zana iyakar da ta dace. Abin da ya gaza shine rashin jituwa a matsayin wasan kwaikwayo. Abin da ke aiki shine sabani na gaske—kuma steelmanning kamar yadda aka bayyana a nan ba wasan kwaikwayo bane, saboda mataki na biyu yana bukatar a tafi a nemo mafi karfi hujja ga ra'ayin adawa. Ba za ka iya yin jabu da bincike da kake rike a hannunka ba. Wannan shine ma dalilin da ya sa Steve Jobs ya kore mambobin kwamitin da ba su taba sabani da shi ba: ba ya gudanar da wasan muhawara, yana sayen adawa ta gaske.

Ka'ida mai amfani: kada ka sanya steelmanning a matsayin hali ("yi wa shaidar mai jayayya na dan lokaci"). Sanya shi a matsayin abin da za a kawo ("ka kawo mafi karfi shaidar da aka rubuta a kan wannan kafin Alhamis"). Na farko yana haifar da karfafa. Na biyu yana haifar da shaidar.

Matakai 3 na Steelmanning

Steelmanning ƙwarecewa ce da za a iya koya. Ga tsarin:

Fadi matsayin adawa a cikin mafi karfinsa.

Ba shine sigar da abokin hamayyarka ya bayyana ba. Sigar da zasu bayyana idan sun sami karin lokaci, ingantaccen shaida, da kuma rashin matsin lamba na zamantakewa. Ka tambaya: "Idan wannan matsayi yana daidai, menene mafi karfi shaida a kansa?" Ya kamata ka iya bayyana matsayin adawa fiye da yadda masu goyon bayansa suke yi—dokar farko ta Rapoport.

Nemo hujja mafi karfi don wannan matsayi

Bincika goyon bayan hujja mafi ƙarfi ga ra'ayin adawa. Wane bayanai ne mutum mai hankali da ilimi zai kawo? Wane misalai na tarihi ne ke goyon bayan wannan? Wannan shine mataki da yawancin mutane ke tsallake—kuma tsallake shi yana bambanta tsakanin ingantaccen steelman da kuma yin kwaikwayo na steelmanning.

Sai a nan ne, ka shiga cikin hujjojin ka na akasin.

Ina ina matsayin ku ke da fa'idodi na gaske akan wannan sigar karfe? Ina matsayin adawa ke da gaskiya, don haka na ku yana bukatar gyara? Matsayin ku na karshe ya kamata ya yi magana kai tsaye akan hujjar karfe—ba wani sigar da aka raunana ba.

Steelmanning a cikin Shawarwarin Samfura

Shawarar samfur shine inda steelmanning ke biyan kudi cikin sauri, saboda hanyoyin suna da rauni musamman ga son tabbatarwa: ƙungiyoyi suna gina fasaloli da ke tabbatar da ra'ayoyi na yanzu game da abin da masu amfani ke so maimakon kalubalantar su. Ayyuka hudu suna sanya hujjar adawa ta zama ainihi kafin a sanya kuɗi:

Takardar "Me Yasa Wannan Ya Gagare"

Kafin kowanne babban alkawari na fasali, ƙungiya ƙanana tana rubuta takardar shafi 1-2 tana gabatar da hujja mafi ƙarfi cewa fasalin zai gaza. Ba dalilin da zai sa ya gaza ba—dalilin da zai sa ya gaza. Ana gabatar da ita kafin shawarwarin fasalin, ba bayan haka ba.

Martani Mafi Karfi daga Masu Gasa

Ba "masu fafatawa na iya kwafa mu" ba amma mafi inganci, cikakken bayani kan yadda mafi wayo mai fafatawa zai amsa wannan mataki, da dalilin da ya sa wannan amsar za ta kawar da fa'idar.

Yanayin "Karin Karya"

Mafi ingancin bayanin halayen dabi'u, samfuran tunani, ko iyakokin aikin da zasu sa karɓa ta gaza ko da a tsakanin masu amfani da suka fara nuna sha'awa.

Gwajin Tsira

Don kowanne labarin nasara da kake samun wahayi daga gare shi, gina hujjar karfe kan dalilin da ya sa halin da kake ciki ya sha bamban da wanda ya yi nasara—da kuma dalilin da ya sa waɗannan bambance-bambancen suke da mahimmanci.

Yadda Argumentree ke Tsara Steelmanning

Dalilin da ya sa steelmanning ya zama rari a cikin kungiyoyi shine tsarin, ba dalilin motsawa ba. Kungiyoyi ba su da wani tsari na hukuma da ke bukatar gina hujjar adawa. Tsarin yanke shawara na asali—"gabatar, tattauna, yanke shawara"—bai da wani mataki na steelmanning da aka gina a ciki.

Tsarin itacen hujja na Argumentree yana canza wannan ta hanyar zane. Kowanne itacen yanke shawara yana kama hujjojin goyon baya da hujjojin adawa daidai da tsari da tsauri. Itacen ba ya cika har sai an rubuta bangarorin biyu—ba a matsayin manufofi ba, amma a matsayin fasalin tsarin kayan aikin. Kuma saboda dole ne a rubuta bangaren adawa maimakon a yi shi, yana kauce wa tuƙin rawar da Nemeth ya gano: itacen yana buƙatar shaidar, ba hali ba.

Steelmanning a matsayin Hanyar Hukumomi

Hanyar mafi karfi ta steelmanning ba ta kasance wata dabara ta mutum ba—hanya ce ta kungiya. Lokacin da kowace muhimmiyar shawara ke da takardun hujja masu adawa da ita da kuma amsa da aka rubuta, kuna gina gaskiyar ilimi ta hukuma. Sabbin mambobin ƙungiya suna gado ba kawai shawarar ba har ma da ingancin tunani a bayan su. Kuma lokacin da yanayi ya canza, zaku iya duba duka shawarar da steelman don ganin ko tunanin asali har yanzu yana da inganci.

Gwada shi a taron ku na gaba

Ba kwa buƙatar canza tsarin yanke shawara don farawa. Gwada wannan a taron dabarunku na gaba:

Kafin taron: Gano babban shawarwarin. Ba wa mutum daya aikin gina hujja mafi karfi a kan sa a matsayin abin da za a gabatar tare da shaidar - ba don yin mai adawa a cikin dakin ba.
A cikin taron: Gabatar da shari'ar steelman da farko. Tambayi dakin: "Shin wannan shine mafi karfi version na kin amincewa? Me muka rasa?"
Lokacin tattaunawa: Lokacin da kake amsa ga steelman, ka bayyana karara mafi ƙarfi na hujjojin sa—kar ka juya zuwa ga waɗanda suka fi rauni waɗanda suke da sauƙin musantawa.
A cikin rajistar hukunci: Rubuta steelman da amsoshin tare da hukuncin. A cikin watanni shida, "me ya sa muka yanke wannan hukuncin?" yana da amsa da ta haɗa da ƙarfi mafi girma da dalilin da ya sa aka watsar da su.

Steelmanning ba ya da jin dadi. Yana bukatar ka yi muhawara a kan matsayinka na gaskiya da ƙoƙari, kuma yana hana ka samun sauƙin nasara akan ra'ayin rauni na ɓangaren ɗaya. Amma kuma shine hanya mafi inganci don tabbatar da cewa shawarwarinka na iya tsira daga haɗuwa da gaskiya—saboda sun riga sun tsira daga haɗuwa da mafi kyawun hujja a kansu.

Buffett ya sanya bear a kan matakin sa. Tambayar ga babban hukuncin ka na gaba ta fi sauƙi: wanene naka?

Hanyoyin Koyo & Karatu na Ƙari

Intuition Pumps da Sauran Kayan Aiki don Tunani — Daniel Dennett (2013)

Babi na 3 yana tsara dokokin Rapoport, tsarin steelmanning na gargajiya, wanda aka ba wa masani kan wasanni Anatol Rapoport.

Schweiger, Sandberg & Ragan — Mujallar Gudanarwa ta Academy 29(1), 1986

"Hanyoyin Kungiya don Inganta Yanke Shawara na Dabaru": kare shaidan da binciken dialektiya vs. jituwa

Aikin Kammala Binciken Shirin - Gary Klein, Harvard Business Review (2007)

Hanyar pre-mortem, wanda aka gina bisa binciken Mitchell, Russo & Pennington na 1989 na hangen nesa na gaba (~30% gano)

Charlan Nemeth — binciken rashin jituwa na ƙananan rukuni, UC Berkeley

Gaskiyar sabani da kuma aikin kare shaidan (Jaridar Turai ta Ilimin Zamani, 2001): me ya sa sabani da aka yi yana jawo koma baya

Warren Buffett ya dauki bear — taron shekara-shekara na Berkshire Hathaway (2013)

Buffett ya gayyaci mai sayar da gajeren lokaci Doug Kass a kan dandalin don ya yi muhawara kan Berkshire; an ruwaito ta Forbes da CNBC, Maris-Zuwan 2013

Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi

Menene steelmanning kuma ta yaya yake bambanta da strawmanning?

Steelmanning shine aikin gina mafi karfi version na hujjar abokin adawa kafin a shiga tattaunawa da ita. Strawmanning kuwa akasin haka ne—kai farmaki ga version mai rauni, wanda aka canza, ko wanda aka sauƙaƙe na matsayin abokin adawa. Strawmanning shine dabi'ar dan Adam ta asali: muna wakiltar ra'ayoyin abokan adawa a cikin mafi rauni nau'in su saboda yana da sauƙi a hankali kuma yana jin kamar nasara. Steelmanning shine tsari na gangan wanda ke buƙatar neman mafi ƙarfi hujja da dalili don matsayin da ba ku yarda da shi ba, da kuma bayyana shi cikin jinƙai fiye da yadda abokin adawa ya bayyana shi da kansa.

Menene dokokin Rapoport?

Dokokin Rapoport su ne ka'idojin steelmanning na hukuma, wanda masaniyar falsafa Daniel Dennett ya rubuta a cikin Intuition Pumps and Other Tools for Thinking (2013) kuma an ba wa mai nazarin wasanni Anatol Rapoport. Ka'ida ta 1: sake bayyana matsayin wanda kake magana da shi cikin tsabta, haske, da adalci har su ce 'Na gode, ina fatan na yi tunanin sanya shi a wannan hanya.' Ka'ida ta 2: lissafa dukkan abubuwan da kuka yarda da su. Ka'ida ta 3: ambaci duk wani abu da kuka koya daga wanda kuke magana da shi. Ka'ida ta 4: sai a wannan lokacin ne aka ba ku izinin faɗin ko kalma guda ta musanta ko suka. Dokokin suna sanya musanta zama wani hakki da aka samu ta hanyar nuna fahimta.

Me yasa mafi kyawun masu tattaunawa ke jayayya da kansu?

Amintaccen suna yana dogara ne akan gaskiya ta ilimi. Idan zaka iya wakiltar mafi karfi matsayin bangaren da ke akasin naka—fiye da yadda suka bayyana shi—kana nuna cewa ka yi hakika da tunaninsu maimakon ka watsar da shi. Wannan yana kawar da kare kai, yana samar da fili don amincewa ta gaskiya, kuma akai-akai yana bayyana wuraren hadin kai da ba a zata ba. A aikace: idan zaka iya bayyana mafi karfi hujja a kan matsayin ka kuma har yanzu ka kare shi, matsayin ka yana da karfi sosai. Idan mafi karfi hujja ta akasin ka ta kayar da kai, ka gano hakan kafin ka yi wani tsada mai yawa.

Yaya lauyoyi ke amfani da steelmanning a cikin shari'o'in Kotun Koli?

Masu kare hakkin kotun koli suna shiryawa don gabatar da hujjoji ta hanyar amfani da kotunan jarrabawa—zaman atisaye inda abokan aiki, malamai na shari'a, da tsofaffin ma'aikata ke taka rawa a matsayin alkalai masu adawa da kuma gina hujjoji mafi muni da za a iya samu kan matsayin mai kare hakkin. Horon kare hakkin, wanda ya haɗa da littafin David C. Frederick na "Supreme Court and Appellate Advocacy," yana ɗaukar gano raunin cikin shari'arka kafin alkalai su yi hakan a matsayin muhimmin shiri: alkalai za su gano kowanne rauni, don haka mai kare hakkin dole ne ya gano su da farko.

Shin bincike yana goyon bayan steelmanning?

Eh, tare da muhimmin gargadi. Schweiger, Sandberg da Ragan (Majalisar Gudanarwa ta Academy, 1986) sun gano cewa hanyoyin nuna rashin jituwa na tsari—tallafin shaidan da binciken dialektik—suna samar da shawarwari masu inganci fiye da hanyoyin yarda. Mitchell, Russo da Pennington (1989) sun gano cewa hangen nesa na gaba yana inganta gano dalilan gazawar shawara da kusan kashi 30%, tushen binciken Gary Klein na pre-mortem. Gargadin yana fitowa daga binciken Charlan Nemeth: tallafin shaidan da aka sanya, wanda aka yi a aikace, yana nufin samar da karfafa tunani na asalin ra'ayi maimakon sake duba shi da gaske. Steelmanning yana aiki lokacin da yake neman hujja ta gaskiya—wani abu da za a bayar, ba wani rawar da za a taka ba.

Shin ana iya amfani da steelmanning a cikin yanke shawara kan kayayyaki?

Shawarar samfur shine inda steelmanning ke bayar da sakamako mafi sauri, saboda hanyoyin suna da rauni musamman ga son tabbatarwa—gina fasaloli da ke tabbatar da ra'ayoyi na yanzu game da masu amfani maimakon kalubalantar su. Kafin a yarda da babban fasali, aikin steelman yana tambaya: menene mafi karfi yiwuwar cewa wannan fasalin zai gaza? Shin muna magance matsala mara kyau? Shin masu amfani suna da mafita da ba mu bincika ba? Tsarin aikace-aikace sun haɗa da takardar 'dalilin da yasa wannan ya gaza', yanayin martanin mafi ƙarfi daga abokan hamayya, yanayin ƙin amincewa daga masu amfani, da gwajin tsira.

Ta yaya zan yi amfani da steelmanning a taron na gaba?

Kafin taron, zaɓi babban shawarwarin kuma ka ba da mutum ɗaya don gina mafi ƙarfi hujja a kan sa—tare da shaidar, a matsayin abin da za a bayar, ba a matsayin mai kare ra'ayi a cikin dakin ba. Fara taron da gabatar da wannan hujjar ta ƙarfi da farko, sannan ka tambaya: 'Shin wannan shine mafi ƙarfi sigar ƙin amincewa, ko mun rasa wani abu?' Lokacin amsawa, mayar da hankali kan mafi ƙarfi na hujjar maimakon canza zuwa ra'ayoyi masu rauni. A ƙarshe, rubuta hujjar ta ƙarfi da amsoshin tare da shawarar don haka dalilin ya kasance don duba daga baya.

Argumentree Team

Strategic Communication

The Argumentree team is pioneering structured decision intelligence for enterprises worldwide. Our mission is to transform how organizations make, document, and learn from decisions.

Inda Wannan Ya Shafi Kayan Aikin Sabani

Steelmanning wata hanya ce a cikin babban tsari: mafi kyawun al'adun yanke shawara na duniya tsara sabanin su maimakon fatan hakan.

McKinsey, Bridgewater, Amazon Tsarin Sabani

Abubuwa guda 5 na tsarin da ke haɗa al'adun rashin jituwa na masu daraja

Arewonin Sabani na Steve Jobs

Me yasa Jobs ya kore mambobin kwamitin Pixar da ba su taɓa sabani da shi ba

Lokacin da Taruka Suka Karya →

Bubbles, Bay of Pigs, da tunanin kungiyar Janis—me ya sa kungiyoyi masu basira ke kasa

Tattauna bangarorin biyu. Yi yanke shawara mafi kyau.

Argumentree yana tsara steelmanning cikin kowanne itacen yanke shawara—saboda haka ana rubuta hujjar adawa kafin a yanke shawara.

Fara Gwaji Kyauta na Kwana 14 →

The Steel Man: Why the Best Negotiators Argue Against Themselves First