Ingancin Shawara: Abubuwa Shida na Kyakkyawar Shawara — da Dalilin Inganta Tsarin ke Inganta Ingancin

TL;DR

Kyakkyawan hukunci da kyakkyawan sakamako ba abu ɗaya bane — sa'a tana tsakanin su. Ingancin hukunci (DQ), tsarin da aka gina bisa aikin Ronald Howard na Stanford kuma aka tsara ta Carl Spetzler da abokan aiki, yana kimanta hukunci a lokacin da aka yanke shi, ta amfani da abubuwa guda shida da ke samar da sarkar da ba ta da ƙarfi fiye da haɗin gwiwar ta mafi rauni. Sakamakon aikace-aikace shine jigon aikinmu: idan muka inganta tsarin yanke hukunci, muna kuma inganta ingancin hukuncin.

Abubuwa shida, sarkar guda — tsari, zaɓuɓɓuka, bayani, ƙima, tunani, sadaukarwa; ingancin gaba ɗaya yana daidai da mafi rauni a cikin sarkar
Ka daina hukunta shawara bisa ga sakamako — wannan hanya tana da suna (sakamako) kuma tana koya wa ƙungiyarka darussa marasa kyau
Tsari shine kawai makullin da kake iko da shi — sakamakon yana dauke da sa'a; tsarin da ya haifar da shawarar yana cikin ikonka don inganta.
Tsarin yana ciyar da sarkar — SWOT, ribar kudi, Hanyoyi Biyar suna samar da shigarwa; tunani mai tsari shine abin da ke juya su zuwa hukunci

Taron Shawara — jerin sassa guda biyar

Tsara mafi kyau, ingancin yanke shawara mafi kyau: guda biyar da suka haɗa kan hukunci, zaɓi, da kalubalantar kayan aikin da ke bayan manyan yanke shawara.

1.Decision Quality: The Six Elements of a Good Decision — Before You Know the OutcomeKana nan
2.Business Decision Frameworks: Which One to Use, When — The Complete Chooser's Guide
3.Prospect Theory: Why Your Team Fears Losses Twice as Much as It Values Wins
4.Real Options: Why Keeping the Door Open Is a Decision Too
5.NPV Says Yes. Should You? What Discounted Cash Flow Can't Tell You

Sekondi ashirin da shida, yadi daya, da mafi mummunan kira a tarihin duniya

Fabrairu 1, 2015. Super Bowl XLIX. Kungiyar Seattle Seahawks tana da kwallon a kan layin yard guda na New England, seconds ashirin da shida suka rage, suna bace da hudu — kuma Marshawn Lynch, wanda aka fi tsoron mai gudu a cikin gajeren tazara a wasan kwallon kafa, yana tsaye a cikin bayan filin. Kwamandan kungiyar Pete Carroll ya kira watsa. Malcolm Butler, wani sabon dan wasa da ba a zaba ba, ya tsallake hanyar kuma ya karbe ta. Wasan ya kare.

Da safe, shafukan wasanni suna kiran wannan mafi mummunan kiran wasa a tarihin Super Bowl. Amma zakaran poker Annie Duke ta fara littafinta Thinking in Bets da wani hukunci daban: kiran yana da kariya — watakila ma yana da kyau — la'akari da abin da Carroll ya sani a lokacin. Kwatancen tsallakewa akan wannan jefa yana da karanci; lissafin agogo da sauki ya ba Seattle karin dama. Wani abu mai yiwuwa kadan ya faru, kuma duniya ta kimanta shawarar bisa ga sakamakon.

Duke yana da suna ga wannan hanya mai gajere: sakamako — kimanta ingancin hukunci ta hanyar ingancin sakamakon sa. Yanzu yi gwajin a kan kungiyar ku. Idan wani aikin ya gaza, shin kuna tambayar abin da aka sani da kuma tunani a lokacin yanke hukuncin — ko kuwa binciken bayan mutuwa yana zama neman wanda za a zargi? Idan sakamakon shine kawai abin da kuke kimantawa, kuna horar da tawagarku su zama masu sa'a, ba masu kyau ba.

Menene Ma'anar Ingancin Shawara a Gaskiya?

Akwai wani fanni da aka gina daidai akan raba shawara daga sakamakon. Ronald Howard na Stanford ya kirkiro kalmar nazarin shawara a cikin takardarsa ta 1966 mai taken Nazarin Shawara: Ka'idar Shawara da Aka Yi Amfani da Ita, kuma ya shafe shekaru masu zuwa yana gina hanyoyi don yanke shawara masu mahimmanci a cikin rashin tabbas. Carl Spetzler — shugaban Strategic Decisions Group, wanda kamfanin shawara ne da ya samo asali daga wannan lineage na Stanford — ya tsara tsarin aikace-aikace tare da Hannah Winter da Jennifer Meyer a cikin littafin 2016 mai taken Ingancin Shawara: Kirkirar Daraja daga Ingantattun Shawarorin Kasuwanci.

Matsayinsu na tsakiya yana da sauƙi a zahiri: bayyana abin da ke zama kyakkyawan hukunci a lokacin da aka yanke shi, ta amfani da abin da za a iya sani a lokacin. Hukunci yana da inganci — inganci mai auna, mai inganta — wanda ba ya dogara da yadda ƙwallon ke sauka bayan haka. Wannan ma'anar ita ce ke sa yanke hukunci zama ƙwarewa maimakon tikitin caca.

Tsarin yana bayyana abubuwa guda shida da kowanne muhimmin hukunci ke dauke da su, ko ka gudanar da su da gangan ko a'a. Ka yi tunanin su a matsayin hanyoyi a cikin sarkar — saboda mafi karfin ikirarin samfurin shine game da abin da ke faruwa idan daya daga cikinsu ya yi rauni.

Abubuwa Shida na Kyakkyawan Shawara

1. Wani kyakkyawan firam

Shin kuna magance matsala mai kyau, a cikin iyaka mai kyau, tare da mutanen da suka dace? Mafi yawan mummunan shawara suna zama kyawawan amsoshi ga tambaya mara kyau.

Alamar rauni: ƙungiyar na tattauna zaɓuɓɓuka na tsawon makonni, sannan wani yana tambayar wane matsala wannan ke warwarewa.

2. Hanyoyi masu kirkira da za a iya aiwatarwa

Hukunci na iya zama mai kyau ne kawai kamar mafi kyawun zaɓi a kan tebur. Zaɓi guda ɗaya tare da halin da ake ciki ba hukunci ba ne — hukuncin ne kawai.

Alamar rauni: dakin yana gabatar da wata shawara da kuma wani misali mara inganci.

3. Mahimmanci, ingantaccen bayani

Me muke sani, yaya kyau muke sanin shi, kuma menene ya rage ainihin rashin tabbas? Ingancin bayani yana haɗa da kasancewa gaskiya game da iyakokin kuskure.

Alamar rauni: hasashen guda daya da ba a kalubalanta ba yana dauke da dukkanin hujjar kasuwanci.

4. Bayyanannu ƙima da musayar fa'ida

Me muke so ainihi, kuma menene muke shirye mu sadaukar don samun sa? Ka'idojin da ba a bayyana ba suna nuna yadda ake sake shari'ar yanke shawara na tsawon watanni.

Alamar rauni: kowanne mai ruwa da tsaki yana daraja zaɓuɓɓuka daban-daban kuma babu wanda zai iya faɗi dalilin.

5. Kyakkyawan tunani

Shin zaɓin yana bin tsarin, zaɓuɓɓuka, bayanai, da ƙima? Tunani shine haɗin da ke haɗa duk sauran.

Alamar rauni: an rubuta kammalawa kafin bincike.

6. Kula da aiki

Zabi mai haske wanda ba kowa ke aiwatarwa ba yana da daraja daidai da komai. An gina sadaukarwa a lokacin yanke shawara, ba bayan haka ba — ta hannun mutanen da dole ne su aiwatar da shi.

Alamar rauni: taron ya ƙare da yarjejeniya amma babu wani canji.

Ka'idojin Sarka: Inganci Ya Dace da Mafi Rauni Hanyar

Ga ɓangaren tsarin da yawancin ƙungiyoyi ke rasa. Abubuwa guda shida ba su da matsakaici. Spetzler da abokan aikin sa sun bayyana: hukunci yana kama da sarkar, kuma ingancin sa gaba ɗaya yana daidai da ingancin mafi rauni daga cikin abubuwan. Kyakkyawan bincike (abun 3) ba zai iya mayar da hankali kan warware matsala ba (abun 1). Kyakkyawan tunani (abun 5) da aka gina akan zaɓi guda ɗaya (abun 2) yana nufin kyakkyawan tunani game da rashin zaɓi.

Tsarin yana ba da ma'anar aiki ga kowanne haɗin gwiwa na kashi 100: wurin da ƙarin ƙoƙari zai fi tsada fiye da yadda zai inganta shawarar. Ba ka neman cikakken inganci a dukkan guda shida — kana neman lokacin da ƙarfafa haɗin gwiwa mafi rauni ba ya zama mai daraja jinkirin. Wannan sake fasalin yana canza ingancin shawara daga falsafa zuwa jerin abubuwan da za ka iya gudanarwa.

Idan sakamakon shine abin da ya ƙunshi, me ya sa za a yi hukunci kan tsarin?

Hujja mai bayyana: ana biyan kasuwanci bisa ga sakamako, ba bisa ga tsaftar tsarin aiki ba. Kodayake an yi tunani mai kyau, har yanzu wannan gazawa ce. Me ya sa wani zai damu da yadda aka yi naman sa?

Amsoshi guda biyu. Na farko shine na kididdiga: ba ka yanke shawara guda daya ba, ka yanke dubban. Kowanne sakamako guda daya yana da ingancin shawara da sa'a — amma a cikin tarin shawarwari, sa'a tana bacewa kuma ingancin tsarin shine abin da ya rage. 'Yan wasan poker suna fahimtar wannan da zuciya, wanda shine dalilin da ya sa ra'ayin da Duke ya samo ya fito daga poker: dan wasa wanda ke tantance kowanne hannu bisa ga ko ya ci zai koya koyaushe darussa marasa kyau, saboda kyawawan wasa suna rasa kowane lokaci.

Amsar ta biyu ita ce ta kimiyya. Binciken Bain da Marcia Blenko, Michael Mankins, da Paul Rogers suka gudanar, wanda aka buga a Decide & Deliver (2010), ya gano cewa ingancin yanke shawara — inganci, sauri, amfanin, da kokari — yana da alaƙa mai ƙarfi da aikin kuɗi a dukkan masana'antu da wurare da suka yi nazari akai. A halin yanzu, wani bincike na McKinsey ya gano cewa kusan ɗaya daga cikin guda biyar na ƙungiyoyi suna cewa suna da ƙwarewa a yanke shawara, yayin da shugabanni ke bayar da rahoton cewa suna ɓata lokaci mai yawa akan yanke shawara. Tazarar tsakanin waɗannan binciken guda biyu ita ce dalilin kasuwanci na aiki akan tsarin gaba ɗaya.

Inganta Tsarin Yanke Shawara, Inganta Ingancin Yanke Shawara

Saka dokar siliki da kuma tuwon da ya biyo baya tare, za ka iso ga jigon da wannan dandalin gaba ɗaya aka gina a kai: idan mun inganta tsarin yanke shawara, muna kuma inganta ingancin shawarar. Ba a matsayin jigo a bango ba — a matsayin sakamako na inji. Abubuwa guda shida suna da halayen tsarin. Kowanne daga cikinsu ana tantance shi kafin a sami sakamakon. Kowanne daga cikinsu na iya karfafa ta hanyar canza yadda ake yanke shawara.

Ba za ka iya sarrafa ko kasuwar ta juya, ko sabon dan wasa ya tsallake hanya, ko kuma kudin fasaha ya biya. Za ka iya sarrafa ko tsarin ya bayyana, ko zaɓuɓɓukan sun kasance na gaskiya, ko shaidar an gwada ta, ko musayar ra'ayi an bayyana, ko tunani ya bayyana, da kuma mutanen da ke cikin dakin sun yi hakkin su. Tsarin shine kawai ɓangaren shawarar da ka mallaki gaba ɗaya — wanda ke sa shi zama ɓangaren da ya dace da inganta a tsari.

Yadda Argumentree ke ƙarfafa kowanne haɗi

Argumentree na'ura ce mai ingancin yanke shawara wacce ke sanye da tufafin dandalin tattaunawa. Kowanne daga cikin abubuwa shida yana da alaƙa da wani fasalin tsari — ba tunatarwa ta mafi kyawun aiki ba, amma wata hanya ce da tsarin ke bi ta:

Tsarin → tambayar yanke shawara da aka ba da suna, wanda aka raba

Duk tattaunawa tana farawa a matsayin tambaya mai bayyana tare da fadin da aka gani, an tsara ta bisa sashen da rukuni. Canza tsarin yana faruwa a fili — gyara tushen itacen, ba tare da sake rubuta tarihi a cikin tattaunawar dakin ba.

Zabi → rassan gasa, a gefen juna

Zaɓuɓɓuka suna rayuwa a matsayin rassan juna a cikin itace guda, ana kwatanta su da shaidar da ta dace. Shigar da ba a bayyana ba yana nufin zaɓuɓɓuka suna bayyana bisa ga cancanta — ba a tace su ta hanyar wanda ya gabatar da su ba. Fitar da taimakon AI yana jawo zaɓuɓɓukan da aka riga aka ɓoye a cikin takardunku da rubutun taronku.

Bayanan → shaidar da aka makala, sannan aka yi tambayoyi

Iyakoki suna dauke da shaidarsu, kuma tsarin tambaya da amsa yana ba kowa damar bincika ikirarin da ba shi da karfi a wuri — wata hanyar matakai hudu na juyawa wanda ke barin tarihin maimakon zaren da ba a warware ba.

Darajoji → bayyananne, mai yawa-dimension rating

Maimakon samun wani matsayi na ciki da ba a faɗi ba, hujjoji suna samun kimantawa a kan fannoni da dama. Ka'idojin suna bayyana, don haka rashin jituwa game da ƙima yana bayyana a matsayin bayanai — ba a matsayin wani ɓata lokaci mai ban mamaki ba.

Dalili → itacen hujja kanta

Taimako da hujjojin kai hari suna da alaƙa da tsarin da suke taɓa. Kyakkyawan tunani yana daina zama yabo na mutum kuma yana zama wani abu da za ka iya duba: kowanne ƙarshe yana nuna hujjojin da suka tsira don tallafawa shi. Hanyar sulhu tana yin haka ga tattaunawar musayar.

Kuduri → bin diddigin ra'ayi da hanyar bincike

Ana bin diddigin ra'ayi yayin da ake yanke shawara, don haka an gina himma a ciki, ba a nema bayan haka ba. Rajistar shawara — wanda ya yi muhawara akan menene, menene aka sani, dalilin da ya sa aka yanke wannan zaɓin — yana zama tarihin ƙungiya wanda tsarin duba ke kammala daga baya.

Inda Tsarin Klasik ya dace

Ingancin yanke shawara kuma yana bayyana wani abu mai ma'ana game da kayan aikin gargajiya — SWOT, nazarin farashi-da-amfani, Karfin Hudu na Porter, shirin yanayi da sauran su. Waɗannan tsarin suna samar da shigarwa don takamaiman hanyoyi a cikin sarkar. SWOT yana ƙara kaifi ga tsarin kuma yana bayyana bayanai. Nazarin farashi-da-amfani da NPV suna ciyar da bayanai da ƙimar hanyoyi. Shirin yanayi yana gwada bayanai a ƙarƙashin rashin tabbas. Hanyoyin samar da madadin suna kai hari ga hanyar biyu.

Abin da babu daga cikinsu ke bayarwa shine haɗin gwiwa na biyar. Tsarin SWOT da aka cika yana da jerin abubuwa hudu — ba ya auna karfi guda ɗaya da barazanar guda biyu, ko kuma ya rubuta dalilin da ya sa damar ta fi haɗarin. Wannan haɗin gwiwa shine tunani, kuma shine ainihin matakin da itace ke bayarwa: fitarwar tsarin tana zama ikirari, ikirarin suna jawo hujjoji masu goyon baya da na kai hari, kuma shawarar tana gado hujja mai bayyana, mai gwaji. Gudanar da tsarin don shigarwa; gudanar da hujja don shawarar. Hakan shine dalilin da ya sa taswirar hujja ke haɗuwa da kowanne tsarin a jerin maimakon yin gasa da su.

Hanyar: Binciken Mafi Rauni na Minti Goma Sha Biyu

Mafi amfani da sashi na tsarin DQ yana da farashin wani abu a cikin ajandar taro. Kafin yanke shawara mai mahimmanci, a ba kowane mahalarta damar kimanta dukkan abubuwa guda shida daga 0 zuwa 100 cikin dari — inda 100 ke nufin ƙarin ƙoƙari akan wannan abu ba zai zama mai amfani da jinkirin ba. Sa'an nan a kwatanta maki.

Abu mafi ƙanƙanta shine ingancin yanke shawara, ƙarshen magana. Idan zaɓuɓɓuka sun sami kashi 40 cikin 100, shawarar tana da kashi 40 cikin 100 duk da yadda kyawawan tsarin kuɗi yake. Sabani tsakanin masu ƙididdiga suna da daraja iri ɗaya: lokacin da CFO ya ba da bayanai kashi 80, kuma jagoran injiniya ya ba da shi kashi 30, kun sami tattaunawar da shawarar har yanzu ke buƙata. Karfafa raƙuman rauni, sake ƙididdiga, sannan kawai kuyi alkawari.

Tambayar Gwaji

Ka ɗauki babban shawarar da kake yi a cikin jirgi yanzu kuma ka kimanta abubuwa guda shida da gaskiya. Wanne haɗi ne mafi rauni — kuma shin akwai wanda ke aiki a kan wannan haɗin, ko kuwa kowa yana gyara waɗanda suka fi ƙarfi?

Me za a yi da wannan

Raba nazarin shawara daga nazarin sakamako

Yi hukunci bisa ga abin da aka sani da kuma tunani a lokacin; yi hukunci kan sakamakon bisa ga abin da suke koya game da duniya. Hada duka biyun yana haifar da sakamako — kuma yana lalata daukar hadari na gaskiya.

Yi binciken mafi rauni kafin ka yarda.

Goma sha shida, mintuna goma sha biyar. Mafi karancin maki shine ingancin hukuncin da ainihin ajandar taron.

Nemi ainihin madadin.

Wani shawarwari tare da wani misali na karya shine amincewa. Idan babu wanda zai iya ambaton zaɓi na biyu mafi kyau da abin da ya ja hankalin sa, abu na biyu ya gaza.

Sa hujja ta zama mai duba.

Idan haɗin kai tsakanin shaidar da ƙarshe yana cikin tunanin mutum guda, ba za a iya tabbatar da ingantaccen tunani ba — ko inganta shi. Rubuta hujjar a inda za a iya kaiwa ga kai hari.

Yi la'akari da tsarin a matsayin masu samar da shigarwa

SWOT, CBA, da Five Forces suna samar da ikirari. Ba sa samar da shawara. Ka tsara lokaci a cikin kasafin kudi don matakin tunani da ke juyar da sakamakon su zuwa zaɓi.

Sashen da Kake Sarrafa

Kiran wasan Pete Carroll za a yi muhawara akansa har abada, wanda shine ainihin ma'anar: sakamakon ya kawo karshen muhawarar ga mafi yawan mutane, kuma sakamakon shine ɓangaren da bai bayar da bayani mai yawa ba a cikin labarin. Tsarin, zaɓuɓɓuka, bayanai, ƙima, tunani, sadaukarwa — duk waɗannan sun kasance kafin Malcolm Butler ya motsa, kuma babu wani abu daga cikinsu da ya canza lokacin da ya motsa.

Kungiyoyin da ke kimanta sakamako kawai suna koyon jinkiri kuma suna yin caca akai-akai. Kungiyoyin da ke kimanta abubuwa guda shida suna samun ribar tarawa, saboda ingantaccen tsarin yana shafar kowanne yanke shawara na gaba a lokaci guda.

Ba za ka iya sarrafa sakamakon ba. Tsarin yana naka. Inganta tsarin yanke shawara, kuma za ka inganta ingancin yanke shawara.

Hanyoyin Koyo & Karatu na Ƙari

Ingancin Shawara: Kirkirar Kima daga Ingantattun Shawarwarin Kasuwanci — Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, Jennifer Meyer (Wiley, 2016)

Tsarin da aka amince da shi na abubuwa guda shida, misalin sarkar, da ma'aunin kashi 100 cikin 100

Rukunin Shawarwari na Dabaru: Ingancin Shawara

Bayanan gaba na SDG akan tsarin DQ da tarihin nazarin shawara na Stanford.

Nazarin Shawara: Ka'idar Shawara da Ake Amfani da Ita — Ronald A. Howard (1966)

Takardar da ta ƙirƙiri kalmar nazarin yanke shawara, an gabatar da ita a Taron Kasa na Hudu kan Binciken Aiki

Tunani a cikin Caca — Annie Duke (Portfolio, 2018)

Ra'ayin da aka samu da kuma binciken Super Bowl XLIX da ke bude littafin

Yanke Shawara & Isar da Sakon — Marcia Blenko, Michael Mankins, Paul Rogers (Bain / Harvard Business Review Press, 2010)

Binciken Bain wanda ke haɗa tasirin yanke shawara da aikin kuɗi a fannonin masana'antu.

Yanke Shawara a Zamanin Gaggawa — McKinsey (2019)

Binciken nazari kan yadda ƙananan ƙungiyoyi ke yin fice a yanke shawara da kuma yawan lokacin da shugabanni ke ɓata wajen yanke shawara.

Tambayoyi da ake yawan yi

Menene ingancin yanke shawara?

Ingancin yanke shawara (DQ) wani tsarin ne na tantance yadda ingancin yanke shawara yake a lokacin da aka yanke shi, ba tare da la'akari da sakamakon sa na gaba ba. An tsara shi ta Carl Spetzler, Hannah Winter, da Jennifer Meyer a cikin Ingancin Yanke Shawara (2016), yana gina kan aikin nazarin yanke shawara na Ronald Howard na Stanford, yana bayyana kyakkyawan yanke shawara ta hanyar abubuwa guda shida: ingantaccen tsari, sabbin hanyoyi masu kirkira, bayanai masu ma'ana da amintattu, ƙimar da ta bayyana da musayar, kyakkyawan tunani, da kuma jajircewa ga aiki.

Menene abubuwa guda shida na ingancin yanke shawara?

Abubuwa guda shida sune: (1) kyakkyawan tsari — warware matsala mai dacewa; (2) sabbin hanyoyi masu yiwuwa — zaɓuɓɓuka na gaske da za a zaɓa daga ciki; (3) bayanai masu ma'ana da amintattu — sanin abin da kake sani da yadda kyau; (4) ƙimar da ta bayyana da musayar — ka'idoji masu bayyana don abin da kake so; (5) kyakkyawan tunani — zaɓi wanda ainihin ya biyo bayan na farko hudu; da (6) sadaukarwa ga aiki — mutanen da dole ne su aiwatar suna da gaske a cikin shirin. Ingancin yanke shawara yana daidai da mafi rauni daga cikin guda shida.

Me yasa kyakkyawan sakamako ba hujja ce ta kyakkyawan yanke shawara ba?

Saboda sa'a tana zaune tsakanin yanke shawara da sakamako. Kyakkyawan yanke shawara na iya nutsewa ta hanyar wani abu mai yiwuwa kadan, kuma wanda ba a yi tunani ba na iya samun ceto ta hanyar sa'a. Kimanta yanke shawara bisa ga sakamakon kawai — abin da Annie Duke ke kira sakamako a cikin Tunani a cikin Kudi — yana koyar da koyarwar kuskure, saboda yana ba da lada ga rashin hankali na sa'a da hukunta kyakkyawan daukar hadari. Ingancin yanke shawara yana kimanta yanke shawara bisa ga abin da za a iya sani da tunani a lokacin da aka yanke.

Waye ya kirkiro tsarin ingancin yanke shawara?

Asalin ilimin ya fito ne daga Ronald Howard a Stanford, wanda ya kirkiro kalmar nazarin yanke shawara a cikin takardarsa ta 1966 mai taken Nazarin Yanke Shawara: Ka'idar Yanke Shawara da Aiki. Tsarin ingancin yanke shawara mai abubuwa shida an tsara shi da Carl Spetzler — shugaban Strategic Decisions Group, wani kamfani da aka kafa a cikin wannan tarihin Stanford — tare da masu rubutun haɗin gwiwa Hannah Winter da Jennifer Meyer a cikin littafin 2016 mai taken Ingancin Yanke Shawara: Kirkirar Daraja daga Ingantattun Shawarwarin Kasuwanci.

Ta yaya kuke auna ingancin yanke shawara?

Kwatanta kowanne daga cikin abubuwa shida daga 0 zuwa 100 cikin dari, inda 100 cikin dari ke nufin ƙarin ƙoƙari akan wannan abu zai fi tsada fiye da yadda zai inganta shawarar. Ingancin shawara gaba ɗaya yana daidai da mafi ƙanƙanta daga cikin maki shida — mafi rauni a cikin sarkar. Kwatanta yana da amfani sosai idan an yi shi a matsayin mai zaman kansa daga wasu mahalarta kafin a yarda: abu mafi ƙanƙanta da aka ba maki yana nuna inda ake buƙatar ƙarin aiki, kuma manyan sabani tsakanin masu ba maki suna nuna inda ƙungiyar ba ta yi daidai ba tukuna.

Ta yaya inganta tsarin yanke shawara ke inganta ingancin shawara?

Dukkanin abubuwa guda shida na ingancin yanke shawara suna da alaƙa da tsarin, wanda aka tantance kafin a sami kowanne sakamako: yadda aka tsara matsalar, yadda aka samar da zaɓuɓɓuka, yadda aka gwada shaidar, yadda aka bayyana musayar, yadda aka haɗa tunani, da yadda aka gina sadaukarwa. Sakamako yana ƙara sa'a a sama; tsarin shine kawai shigarwa da za a iya sarrafawa. Wannan shine dalilin da ya sa inganta tsarin yanke shawara ke inganta ingancin yanke shawara kai tsaye — da kuma dalilin da ya sa binciken Bain ya gano cewa tasirin yanke shawara yana da alaƙa mai ƙarfi da aikin kuɗi.

Ta yaya Argumentree ke inganta ingancin yanke shawara?

Argumentree yana ba kowanne daga cikin abubuwa shida tsarin aiki: tattaunawa tana farawa daga tambayar yanke shawara da aka ambata, wanda aka raba (frame); zaɓuɓɓuka suna rayuwa a matsayin rassan gasa da aka kwatanta jere, tare da shigarwa mara suna da kuma taimakon AI wajen fitar da bayanai (alternatives); hujjoji suna haɗuwa da ikirari kuma ana bincika su ta hanyar jerin tambayoyi da amsoshi masu tsari (information); kimantawa mai yawa yana bayyana ka'idoji (values); itace hujja kanta tana sa tunani ya zama bayyane kuma ana iya gwadawa, tare da tsarin sulhu don musayar (sound reasoning); da kuma bin diddigin jituwa da kuma rajistar yanke shawara da aka rubuta suna ɗaukar alƙawari har zuwa bita (commitment to action).

Argumentree Team

Decision Science

The Argumentree team explores the science of better decisions—from 18th-century mathematics to modern AI.

Yadda Wannan Ke Haɗa A Cikin Tsarin Yanke Shawara

Ingancin yanke shawara shine rufin; tsarin tunani shine haɗin da ke ɗaukar nauyi. Waɗannan sassan suna nuna sauran haɗin a cikin aiki.

Hankalin Yanke Shawara: Daga Bayanai Zuwa Aiki →

Hanyar kasuwanci da ke sanya bayanai da AI a bayan haɗin bayanai

Tsarin Jayayya na McKinsey, Bridgewater, Amazon

Yadda ƙungiyoyi masu ƙarfi ke tsara haɗin tunani mai kyau tare da rashin jituwa mai tsari

Lokacin da Taruka Suka Karya →

Me ke faruwa da bayanai da tunani lokacin da gurguzu suka maye gurbin hukuncin kai?

Inganta tsarin. Inganta inganci.

Argumentree yana canza abubuwa guda shida zuwa tsari: wani rukunin da aka raba, zabi masu gasa, shaidar da aka gwada, kimantawa a fili, dalilai masu bayyana, da tarihin yanke shawara da kungiyarku ke adanawa.

Fara Gwaji Kyauta na Kwana 14 →

Decision Quality: The Six Elements of a Good Decision — Before You Know the Outcome